This time of year, NCAA® March Madness is everywhere. Bracketology, or the analysis and prediction of the tournament’s brackets, is now entrenched as a rite of spring. One of the great aspects of the tournament is the dramatic upset. You know, some team defies the odds and beats a team they should not. Great article last week about historical upset rates, check it out here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/13063296/bracket-science-searching-for-likely-upset-victims-victors. If you like lots of statistics, it is a good read. If you don’t, here’s the summary: the rate that a lower rated team “upsets” a higher-rated team is historically nearly 1 in 5 (19.9%). The selection committee spends all those many hours trying to create accurate seedings, but there are things that simply cannot be accounted for and predicted. Sure, there will be upsets, but where will they be? If you could figure out how to make a bracket “upset proof”, I could show you how to win a lot of contests (and fabulous prizes).
Want more proof? Of the 16 remaining teams in this year’s tournament, 5 were seeded at 6 (out of 16) or below. Based upon their initial seeding, nearly 32% of them should not be left in the field. Predicting performance in a dynamic environment is tough because many unexpected things can happen. I saw a report that out of roughly 4,700,000 brackets submitted at ESPN.com, exactly 12 had correctly predicted the remaining 16 teams. Bracketology is fun.
This reminds me of the practice of trying to predict outcomes in response-based promotions (well without all the brackets, trash-talking amongst friends, prizes and things).
Sponsors implement a response-based promo and try their best to predict the outcome and related budget impact. Have historical information on a similar promotion great, that can be helpful. Only problem is, what marketers are challenged to go out and implement the same programs over and over again? Everyone wants to do something new and fresh. New and fresh is great, but new and fresh make forecasting more challenging. What happens when redemptions outpace budget (an upset)? Uh oh – bracket-busters in real life aren’t as much fun.
The good news is that it is possible to find partners to step in and fix promotional risk, and make your promos “upset proof”. We are one such partner here at Promotional Currency. Little known secret, but in the scheme of things, promotional risk coverage is surprisingly affordable.
“Upsets” happen in promotions, just like in the NCAA Basketball tournament. The key is being able to protect yourself when they happen, because they are awfully hard to predict.
Are your promotions upset proof?